Ozempic: the GLP-1 drug trend reshaping food supply chains

Weight-loss drugs are everywhere. Whether you’ve heard them called GLP-1, Ozempic, Mounjaro, or Wegovy, there’s probably someone you know taking one.

And millions of consumers around the world have altered their food spending habits accordingly.

For supply chain leaders in the food industry this isn’t a fad that’ll pass in the next few months. The drugs are here to stay. And actually, many of them have already been around for 20 years.

But the recent widespread adoption has already impacted demand in the food industry. The question now is whether you can adapt your supply chain quickly enough to respond before you’re left behind?

The drug quietly hitting food sales

3 years ago, in 2023, Walmart U.S. CEO hinted at a growing cause for concern in the company’s data. Their volumes in food sales were declining.

Similarly, Novo Nordisk’s CEO, the brand that makes both Ozempic and Wegovy, reported of several worried calls he’d had from food industry leaders. In every phone call the subject of concern was the havoc the brands’ drugs were having on food sales.

The drugs, which were first developed to help patients manage type 2 diabetes have now become the fastest growing drug category in modern pharmaceutical history. A mind-blowing statistic when you think of all the other competitors.

1 in 8 American adults are taking a form of GLP-1. That’s roughly 34,125,000 people, in just the USA alone.

Predictions from Circana show that by 2030 (just over 3.5 years away), households with a GLP-1 user will account for 35% of all food and beverage sales in the States.

For supply chain leaders in the food industry, this is a statistic to watch closely. The wheels are already in motion for a heavy shift in demand all over the world.

It’s a shift that will dramatically change your forecasting models, impact your inventory policies and stress-test your supplier relationships. The impact extends beyond food demand. Food packaging supply chains are also under pressure as brands adapt products and packaging for GLP-1 users. From “GLP-1 Friendly” labels to prominent protein messaging, these changes are a direct response to shifting consumer preferences.

Is your demand planning set up for this shift? Or are you already playing catch up to an industry-defining landslide?

Statistics at a glance

How will GLP-1 users’ buying habits alter SKUs in the food industry?

The products GLP-1 users stop buying, and the products they buy instead could have dramatic implications for the food industry. You’d have a decent case for suggesting this is already happening.

While it’s true to suggest users of Ozempic buy less food because they eat less, the reality is their buying habits also evolve around nutrition and healthy eating.And this is a commercially significant caveat for those in the food supply chain.

Research from Cornell University, published in December 2025, based on household purchase data from Numerator, has tracked grocery spending before and after GLP-1 prescriptions began.

Their research suggests spending on food shopping drops by 5.3% within just 6 months of someone in their household using GLP-1.

But in households with a higher joint income, the number’s even higher, at 8.2%.

Research from UC Davis however shows GLP-1 users consume 65% fewer sugary drinks, 62% less alcohol, and 55% more fruit and vegetables.

Their research also shows the sales of savory snacks like crisps decline by 10%, with sweets, baked goods, cookies and confectionery also suffering.

Conversely, sales of yoghurt, fresh fruit, protein bars and meat snacks see growth.

This data shows it’s not just overall volume of food that’s impacted by appetite repression medication, but that there’s also an educational element to the change in habits.

Interestingly, many users of Ozempic or Mounjaro have reported experiencing nausea or sickness after eating highly-processed foods, and food high in fat.

Anecdotally, there also seems to be a huge impact in users’ tolerance of alcohol. Meaning it’s not simply food suppliers that will feel the squeeze on demand. Especially with consumer profiles shifting, with Gen Z in particular drinking far less than previous generations.

Changes in diet moving to physiological reasons rather than just willpower assistance suggests the change is a permanent evolution, rather than a temporary fad that will fade over time,

As a supply chain planner in the food or beverage industry, it’s incredibly likely the demand data you’re forecasting against is already out of date.

5 pressure points food supply chain leaders have to address

1. Demand forecasting models are built on the wrong baseline

Every single demand forecast you’re using today was almost certainly built using the historical data based on consumption that’s dramatically shifting.

Pre-GLP-1 data is no longer fit for purpose in the food industry. We’re now at mainstream adoption for the medication meaning your data’s passed its ‘use by date’. And looking beyond that fact, many of the models in use will now overestimate demand for calorie-dense, ultra-processed SKUs. Especially as adoption accelerates towards 30 million US users by 2030.

Right now GLP-1 drugs are taken by injection, a method which may put off some potential candidates. But oral pills are now entering the fray, which could see the market accelerate even more rapidly, as those too squeamish to inject find an easier and lower effort way to manage their weight.

To manage your forecasting you’ll have to enrich your data with the new information coming from the market. The companies that do so quickly will have a significant advantage over those that wait for the signal to become unmistakable, or wrongly believing this is a phase which will drop off over time.

2. Pack architecture and SKU rationalisation

GLP-1 users eat less. We already know that’s the case, as it’s the main reason for using the drug.

They’re likely to eat smaller portions per meal, but also seek out better nutrition, and may be less interested in value-pack formats designed for higher-calorie diets. A 2024 consumer study found that 95% of GLP-1 users reported eating smaller portions, 78% sought smaller pack sizes and 82% actively looked for foods with added nutritional benefits.

It’s highly likely manufacturers will now face a commercial incentive to offer smaller pack sizes or shift offers and products towards healthier products.

Research from PWC alludes to this, suggesting that GLP-1 adoption is contributing to a shift away from traditional volume-based consumption patterns, forcing affected businesses to re-evaluate long-held assumptions around value, purchasing behaviour and product portfolios.

Both of these changes will have supply chain implications.

New pack formats alter case configurations, storage requirements and replenishment logic. And reformulation will require new ingredient sourcing.

Can manufacturers keep the same suppliers after shifting towards healthier options? Or will they need to dramatically alter who they work with, and compete with others for the same products, with no existing relationship?

For those in supply chain, this means increased operating complexity at a time when demand visibility is deteriorating rapidly.

3. Inventory and working capital exposure

One of the most significant risks is to inventory and the working capital tied up in it. While a sudden collapse in demand is unlikely, the potential for a slower shift in demand impacting long term supplier agreements is significant.

Many manufacturers, wholesalers and foodservice distributors operate within multi-year volume commitments, supplier frameworks and purchasing agreements. If demand gradually softens over the life of these contracts, organisations may find themselves holding excess inventory, allocating warehouse space inefficiently and tying up working capital in products that no longer move at the same rate.

Supply chain leaders should be testing long-range scenarios across categories that could be exposed to these shifts.

Are future volume commitments still aligned with likely consumption patterns? How much working capital could become tied up if demand falls short of current assumptions? And are supplier agreements, inventory policies and forecasts flexible enough to adapt if consumption trends evolve over the next five years?

The organisations that identify these shifts early will be better placed to protect both service levels and working capital. By adjusting procurement plans, inventory policies and future volume commitments before the trend becomes pronounced, they can avoid unnecessary stock build-up and keep cash available for more productive investment elsewhere in the business.

4. Supplier and sourcing strategy

The emergence and long-term adoption of GLP-1 drugs will mean different things across ingredients supply. There’s an inherent rising demand for fresh food, vegetables, protein, fibre and nutrient-dense ingredients.

Chicory root, inulin, allulose, and high-quality meat proteins are all growing in demand data.

Refined sugars, ingredients in high-processed snacks,and alcohol inputs are facing severe drops.

For procurement and supply chain leaders, these changes mean conducting an audit of your supplier exposure. And crucially, being ahead of the curve in finding alternatives that better suit what the data’s telling you.

Which supplier relationships are concentrated in declining categories?

Which relationships carry risk if demand continues to drop?

5. The ‘rebound window’ risk

There’s an assumption in the food industry that GLP-1 effects are temporary. This is one of the most dangerous assumptions you can make.

It’s understandable to assume as patients hit their desired weight, and stop taking the prescribed medication, their appetites will return to normal levels. And so buying patterns resume.

The evidence simply doesn’t support this theory.

Clinical research and behavioural data suggest GLP-1 medications act as long-term behaviour modifiers. Even after someone’s treatment ends, their eating patterns never fully revert to pre-treatment levels.

If your supply chain’s built around an expectation that consumer consumption will recover, and that fact never becomes reality, you’ll likely face huge over-stocking in the wrong categories, and massive shortfalls in the right ones.

The data’s telling us this isn’t a cyclical process. It’s linear.

Walk, don’t run

This article isn’t designed to cause panic for the food industry. Instead a cautionary insight into what the data’s telling us about the future.

A report from Hershey’s CEO says they only saw a mild impact from GLP-1 drugs in 2025 and that continued into 2026. Mondelez and Nestlé have given similar reassurances to their investors too. Novo Nordisk even recently cut their 2025 growth outlook for the two medications they offer, showing a ‘slower-than-expected’ adoption.

This could be from concerns over side effects, many of which are still being discovered and monitored, like gastrointestinal distress, hair loss, bone density loss. Or simply the aforementioned injection method of administration. Across the world, where the US leads adoption, both European and Asian markets see nowhere near the same levels of usage.

Then there’s the affordability factor: In the US, costs for GLP-1 drugs range from $900 to $1,400 per month. That’s not a small amount of money. But with competition rising across drug production companies and insurance coverage (specifically in the US) expanding, it’s likely these costs will fall as the market matures.

The commercial impact on food P&Ls isn’t dramatic right now, but the warning signs are definitely there. Supply chain decisions around supplier contracts, manufacturing capacity, SKU portfolios, and replenishment logic can take 18 to 36 months to execute.

So make no bones about it, now’s the time to act before the data moves from warning sign, to canary down the mine. And with GLP-1 pills now entering the market, expect adoption to speed up.

6 things smart supply chain leaders are doing right now

The challenge for food supply chain leaders is translating awareness into planning action. Here are seven practical steps that organisations are already taking:

1. Turning to experts

When faced with new challenges, working with a people-first supply chain solution vendor like Slimstock can help you benefit from market experience and the wide range of use cases our solution addresses, and has already addressed. Where many vendors leave their customers to figure things out for themselves, Slimstock is an ever-present resource of consulting expertise and free training, to all users of Slimstock solutions.

2. Segment your assortment by GLP-1 Risk

Align category structures to emerging consumer demand. Group high-protein, functional and wellness-focused products separately from ultra-processed and declining categories, allowing planners to forecast, invest and optimise inventory in line with changing consumer preferences.

3. Build GLP-1 adoption scenarios into 12–36 month forecasts

Don’t rely on historical data that pre-dates GLP-1 adoption. Analyse low, mid and high adoption curves and test your supply against each one. Scenarios such as the arrival of pill-based GLP-1 could trigger quicker and more widespread adoption and this should be built into your planning.

4. Audit your supplier base

Identify which ingredients and raw material suppliers are in declining categories. And start early conversations about volume flexibility before contract renewals force your hand.

5. Stress-test safety stock and replenishment policies

Review parameters for your highest-risk SKUs. Policies calibrated for stable or growing demand will generate overstock in declining categories.

6. Review packaging strategy

The move toward smaller, nutrient-dense packaging will change production line configuration, case fill rates, and logistics costs. Model the supply chain impact before commercial decisions are made.

Trimming the fat in your supply chain

Demand shifts on a structural level are rare in the food industry.

The vegan and plant-based boom of the late 2010s was the last major event. But that was driven by consumer preference more than medical intervention.

The GLP-1 revolution is totally different, and it’s very much here to stay. A drug that recalibrates the appetites of millions all over the world, with a compounding effect on what, and how much they buy, and which foods they walk past in the supermarket will have a dramatic influence on the industry.

For supply chain leaders in the food and beverage industries, your demand patterns will change. In fact, they already have. Does your business have the planning infrastructure, forecasting agility and supplier relationships to adapt and thrive? Are you working with specialists who can help you row up stream? Are you moving early enough to shape your adaptation and adoption on your own terms? Or will you be left reacting to the shift when the margin impact becomes unignorable?

The data’s here. The window to act is wide open. The only question is, do you have the stomach for it?